Market context and guidance

 

We operate in rapidly evolving sectors, influenced by certain global dynamics as well as by regulatory aspects.

Market context and guidance Market context and guidance

Within a scenario marked by long-term trends associated with the ecological transition and by global events, we are constantly monitoring the reference situations, intercepting and analysing factors that are potentially important for our operations and strategies.

Scenario

The year 2024 was characterised by a framework of increasing economic and geopolitical fragmentation, which forced companies to carefully monitor risk management scenarios and strategies.
However we note that, after the last few years, in 2024 the global economy experienced a process of normalisation, particularly showing a substantial rebalancing in the energy markets. 

 

Global scenario

The grounding of investments envisaged by the 2024-2028 Business Plan requires a profound understanding of scenario developments. 

1. "Trilemma" of the energy transition

2. Skills and New Technologies

3. Availability of natural and financial resources

Italian scenario

 

Need for investments and technological development

 

 

 

Water

Electricity

Environment

 

- Aging water network

- Significant leakages

Under investment in the grid vs European peers

Infrastructural gap in Central-Southern Italy

 

- Market fragmentation

- Limited/heterogenous investment

Lower service levels vs European peers

Growth of new waste treatment value chains

 

- Declining resources availability

- Expected further reduction due to climate change

Increase in demand due to electrification of comsumption

Strong regulatory push towards recycling in Italy and EU

Evolution of the regulatory model

 

We are present in highly regulated sectors. The relevant regulatory environment is broad and diverse, depending on the specifics of the businesses we manage (water, energy and environmental).

 

From...

...To

Opportunities

Capex

- Rate of return approach: tariff recognition of actual capex (remuneration + depreciation)

Opex

- Price cap approach: cost in tariff determined based on historical data and efficiency targets (excluding selected costs, e.g., electricity in Water), sharing efficiencies between operators and users

 

Incentive

- Foreseen bonus/malus mechanism based on quality KPI's

Electricity

 

- Price-cap-type efficiency incentives on Opex from 2024 (basic ROSS1) and expected also on Capex (integral ROSS)

 

- Tariffs based on capitalization rates decided upfront

- Service targets integrated in the regulation

Opportunitiesfor operators which achieve:

 

- Operational excellence in investments plan delivery, operations and financial management

 

- Focus/optimization of spending  aiming al service quality

 

Water

 

- Rate of return per i Capex e price cap per gli Opex

 

- Incentives: extended yo reuse and purchased electricity

 

- In other countries, Totex & output-based approach already consolidated (e.g. UK)

Guidance 2025

 

 

Guidance 2025

Total Capex

~ 1,6 mld €

Capex net of public contributions

~ 1,2 mld €

EBTDA

+2%/+3% vs EBITDA 2024 restated 

PFN/EBITDA

3,4/3,5 x